Pollster:Obama 320 McCain 163 toss-up 55 (unchanged)
538:Obama 345 McCain 192 (Obama +2)
Real Clear Politics:Obama 264 McCain 163 toss-up 111 (unchanged)
Intrade:Obama 338 McCain 200 (McCain +15)
Nationwide: Obama-McCain
Daily Kos/R2K: 51 41 (Obama -1)
Rassmussen: 52 45 (McCain+4)
Gallup (10/7): 51 42 (Obama+1)
Pollster: 49 43 (unchanged)
RCP: 49 44 (unchanged)
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Debate summary
...no smackdowns in the first 25 minutes: McCain in Deep Trouble at that point. Viewership and expectations are front-loaded, and this was the Night for mcCain to draw blood (or so they said).
Didn't happen early.
My fearless prediction: McCain supporters will be exultant, or at least call it a win: they heard what they wanted.
Obama supporteres: Same.
Snap polls: Will run solidly for Obama.
Net impact on the electorate: Little to none. If any, a slight bump for Obama.
UPDATE: The morning after...
CBS: Not even close, an easy Obama win.
CNN: See above.
...the assembled punditry on TV called it for Obama. Even Bill Bennett.
Day-after snap polls can be misleading, and the internals of the CNN poll seem to indicate they oversampled Democrats. However, the consensus was McCain needed to land a big blow to turn the momentum of the campaign around. He needed a clear, if not decisive, win.
He was beaten.
Didn't happen early.
My fearless prediction: McCain supporters will be exultant, or at least call it a win: they heard what they wanted.
Obama supporteres: Same.
Snap polls: Will run solidly for Obama.
Net impact on the electorate: Little to none. If any, a slight bump for Obama.
UPDATE: The morning after...
CBS: Not even close, an easy Obama win.
CNN: See above.
...the assembled punditry on TV called it for Obama. Even Bill Bennett.
Day-after snap polls can be misleading, and the internals of the CNN poll seem to indicate they oversampled Democrats. However, the consensus was McCain needed to land a big blow to turn the momentum of the campaign around. He needed a clear, if not decisive, win.
He was beaten.
Daily Poll summary Tuesday, October 7
- Pollster:
Obama 320
McCain 163
toss-up 55
538:
Obama 342
McCain 194
Real Clear Politics:
Obama 264
McCain 163
toss-up 111
Intrade:
Obama 353
McCain 185
Nationwide:
Obama McCain
Daily Kos/R2K: 52 41
Rassmussen: 52 41
Gallup (10/6): 50 42
Pollster: 49 43
RCP: 49 44
Monday, October 6, 2008
What's left?
The only demographics where McCain still holds a lead are men overall (46-45); the South (52-41); and over 60 (45-43).
In other words--his base is old white Southern men.
I wonder how much of that support he'll lose when they learn he'll finance his tax cuts with reductions in Medicare and Medicaid.
In other words--his base is old white Southern men.
I wonder how much of that support he'll lose when they learn he'll finance his tax cuts with reductions in Medicare and Medicaid.
Daily Poll summary: Monday October 6
Pollster:
Obama 260
Mccain 163
Toss-Up 115
538:
Obama 339
McCain 198
Real Clear Politics:
Obama 264
McCain 163
Toss-up 111
Obama 260
Mccain 163
Toss-Up 115
538:
Obama 339
McCain 198
Real Clear Politics:
Obama 264
McCain 163
Toss-up 111
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Keating 5
....looks like I'm on a roll: Obama surrogates to use the K5 scandal against McCain.
The effectiveness of the choice to me is far less relevant than what it says about the Obama campaign vis-a-vis previous Democratic efforts: These people play hard ball when necessary. A far cry from the lame responses you'd have gotten out of the Kerry or Gore camps.
If the guilt-by-association thing continues look for mention of McCain's association with Pastor Hagee, Richard Quinn (a Columbia, SC white supremacist), and of course convicted felon and McCain donor G. Gordon Liddy...
Are these associations of McCain's equivalent to l'affaires Ayers, Rezko, Wright, and others? I dunno, but if if McCain goes there, he'll get it right back twice as hard, and in the same news cycle.
That said, look for all of this to be handled by surrogates. (Biden is off the circuit for a coupla days)--permits Obama to stay above it all.
The effectiveness of the choice to me is far less relevant than what it says about the Obama campaign vis-a-vis previous Democratic efforts: These people play hard ball when necessary. A far cry from the lame responses you'd have gotten out of the Kerry or Gore camps.
If the guilt-by-association thing continues look for mention of McCain's association with Pastor Hagee, Richard Quinn (a Columbia, SC white supremacist), and of course convicted felon and McCain donor G. Gordon Liddy...
Are these associations of McCain's equivalent to l'affaires Ayers, Rezko, Wright, and others? I dunno, but if if McCain goes there, he'll get it right back twice as hard, and in the same news cycle.
That said, look for all of this to be handled by surrogates. (Biden is off the circuit for a coupla days)--permits Obama to stay above it all.
McCain deconstructed
From Rolling Stone.
Yeah, I know---consider the source.
On the other hand....read the whole thing. Wow.
Yeah, I know---consider the source.
On the other hand....read the whole thing. Wow.
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