Friday, October 31, 2008


A bit rash to make a prediction before the weekend news cycle, but I think the trends are solid. Barring some sort of last-minute revelation, here is my forecast of Tuesday's result:

I basically just extrapolated the current numbers through Tuesday: I do not think Obama will flip GA or MO, but he will pick up IA, MT, ND, FL, OH, VA, NV, and NC. The national vote totals should run Obama 51 McCain 46. I don't see Barr, Nader, and the rest picking up more than 3 percent.

Obama is making a strong push in ND, GA, and AZ. ND will pay off (McCain's numbers have plummeted there), GA--prolly not. The Arizona thing strikes me as an "in-your-face" tactic (although several polls have shown McCain's lead there shrinking).

I think predictions of 400+ EV and 60 Senate seats a bit optimistic.

The DKos map is pretty cool: try it.

No comments: